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This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. TRAC , a San Francisco-based early-stage venture firm cofounded by Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, and Dick Fredericks in 2020, has set about to take a more systematic approach to venture capital. Advertisement"A SuperForecaster is in the top 1/10th of 1% of all early-stage investors," Aaron told Business Insider. But now TRAC has agreed to name names, revealing a random sampling of 30 of the 287 SuperForecasters in its model. They rarely make follow-on investments.
Persons: , Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, Dick Fredericks, Phillip Tetlock, Dan Gardner's, Aaron, SuperForecasters Organizations: Service, Business Locations: San Francisco
In today's big story, we're looking at the best investors when it comes to early-stage companies. The big storyPicking winnersCaterina Fake, Cindi Bi, and Suleman AliInvesting can be a crapshoot, especially when it comes to early-stage companies. AdvertisementThe investors, profiled by BI's Ben Bergman, Samantha Stokes, Rebecca Torrence, and Leena Rao, have an incredible track record for early-stage investing. Silicon Valley can be known to have a herd mentality, especially when it comes to venture investors. And yet, some of the best early-stage investors have proven to have far better success going out on their own.
Persons: , we've, Caterina Fake, Suleman Ali, BI's Ben Bergman, Samantha Stokes, Rebecca Torrence, Leena Rao, Joseph Aaron, cofounders, Tanja Ivanova, isn't, Chanos, Elon Musk, Jim Chanos, Tesla, Musk, Dan Ives, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Brittany Hosea, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Philipp Schindler, Google's, Alyssa Powell, Michelle Obama, Betty White, Steve Harvey, Muhammad Ali, Benjamin Franklin, Al Capone, Calvin Harris, Charles Schwab, They've Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters, Getty, Elon, Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Google, BI Locations: pant, San Francisco, Brittany, China, Davos, ChatGPT's
The firm developed a propriety model that uses AI to predict which early-stage startups are most likely to become unicorns, which are companies valued at more than a billion dollars. "Our AI eliminates about 99% of all early-stage companies from consideration, because our data predicts these companies have a higher probability of failure." Another surprising thing about TRAC's model is it does not value founders as predictive. "Similar vintage early-stage VCs would have had upwards of 20% of their portfolio be false positive within the first few years. Here are the 30 companies TRAC's model identified as being the next unicorns, in alphabetical order, all with a valuation of less than $250 million.
Persons: Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, Dick Fredericks, Aaron, Sam Altman, MBAs, Angel SuperForecasters, Campbell Locations: San Francisco
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